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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is increasingly confident it can reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by year-end. The company's CFO said there is now "even more conviction" around the target. A new AI hosting agreement worth $13 billion on an annualized basis adds significant support to that outlook and reflects how quickly SpaceX's compute business is scaling. But the financial picture behind that growth is less straightforward. The same AI division that management is relying on to help reach that target posted a $1.3 billion loss in the latest quarter alone. The loss wiped out what would have otherwise been a profitable quarter, while the company generated roughly negative $25 billion in free cash flow during the first half of 2026.
A New AI Hosting Deal Strengthens SpaceX's Conviction
CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX has "even more conviction" that it can reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate. The outlook is supported by a newly signed AI hosting agreement worth $1.11 billion per month beginning in December, or roughly $13 billion on an annualized basis. The company plans to end the year with a little over 2 gigawatts of terrestrial AI-computing capacity and scale to between 5 and 10 gigawatts in 2027. Orbital computing remains a longer-term option for overcoming power constraints. Its current agreements include a $6.7 billion cloud-services contract that is scheduled to ramp up in October. Existing arrangements with Google and Anthropic are worth more than $2 billion per month combined. Reaching the $100 billion target would require monthly revenue to more than triple from second-quarter's pace.
The Segment Driving Growth Is Also Driving Losses
SpaceX's rocket and Starlink businesses generated roughly $1.1 billion in combined operating income in the second quarter. But the AI division's $1.3 billion loss more than wiped out that profit. The company also generated roughly negative $25 billion in free cash flow during the first half of 2026. The stock declined more than 5% after the second-quarter results despite a revenue beat.
The AI contract pipeline is clearly expanding and gaining momentum. However, the $100 billion target is a revenue run-rate measure rather than a profitability target. At the same time, the division driving this expansion remains the company's largest contributor to both both operating losses and capital spending, making the growth opportunity financially costly for now.
SpaceX had 119 hedge funds among its institutional holders at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Meanwhile, short interest stood at just 2.76% of float as of August 31, 2026. The ownership and the short interest figures show that institutional sentiment remains broadly constructive and toward the company's long-term outlook.
While we acknowledge the potential of SPCX as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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