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On September 16, Air Products (NYSE:APD) said it had signed a long-term deal to supply high-purity gases to a leading chipmaker, backed by roughly $250 million of its own money in Arizona. It is the company's second semiconductor supply win, and the two projects together carry more than $900 million of investment. That is a notable turn for a company that has been pulling back from big clean-energy projects.
The Arizona project plays to what Air Products already does. It will build, own, and operate the equipment, from hydrogen generation units and carbon dioxide purification to bulk supply for three gases: helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide. That means the customer's gas supply runs through equipment Air Products owns. Supply is targeted to start in phases, so the buildout can move alongside the customer's expansion plans. And this is familiar ground. Air Products has supplied electronics makers for more than 40 years, and its Chandler facility has served the Phoenix chip cluster since 1981, with a pipeline system carrying ultra-high purity nitrogen around the area.
The core business gives the deal a solid floor. In the fiscal third quarter, reported on July 30, adjusted earnings per share rose 12% to $3.47, and management lifted its full-year outlook to an adjusted $13.39 to $13.49 per share. Margins widened as well, so growth is showing up as profit. Chips appear elsewhere in the results too, since the company announced a deal to build four large air separation units to serve a chipmaker's growth in Taiwan.
The cost of the pivot is hard to ignore. On June 30, Air Products announced it would not go ahead with its Louisiana Clean Energy Complex and would discontinue a zero-carbon liquid hydrogen facility in Casa Grande, Arizona, plus other smaller clean energy distribution projects. The exits triggered roughly $2.9 billion in pre-tax charges, which is why the company posted a GAAP loss of $6.47 per share in the third quarter even as its underlying earnings grew. Adjusted results leave that hit out, but the GAAP numbers show what the retreat cost.
Owning the assets also means funding them. Air Products expects about $3.5 billion of capital spending in fiscal 2026, and the Arizona plant alone is a commitment of approximately $250 million, with supply arriving in phases. The release also leaves gaps: it does not name the customer or say how long the contract runs, so the length of the revenue stream is unclear. Elsewhere, Europe's operating income rose only 2% as costs climbed, and management says it is still cautious about the economic backdrop.
48 hedge funds held Air Products in the most recent quarter, down from 56 in the prior one. That kind of drop usually signals fading conviction among institutions. Yet short interest is only 1.85% of the float, so few investors are betting against the company. Some short positions are hedges rather than outright bets, so the low figure should not be over-read. At 19.88 times forward earnings, as of September 18, the stock is priced for earnings to keep growing.
Air Products is leaning into a customer base it already knows well, while paying to leave some of its largest clean-energy plans behind. The open question is whether steady chip-plant contracts can carry growth now that those projects are shelved. Bulls want to see the phased Arizona build and the Taiwan units come online while margins keep widening. Bears will be watching whether capital spending really falls, as management says it can, and whether the chipmaker's expansion plans hold.
While we acknowledge the potential of APD as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
READ NEXT: 10 Best Future Stocks to Buy Under $10 and 12 Best Performing Semiconductor Stocks to Invest In.
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